Bear, your own mental and physical health should always be your priority. Step away as often as you need to. We'll wait. Happy belated birthday - believe me, at 40, you're still very much a young 'un 😊
Thank you Bear for this excellent analysis- and it was good to read something that isn't treating Andy Burnham as the second coming. Absolutely agree that - as a Labour bod, complacency is a bad enemy and that headline grabbing political whoopees may not be sufficiently grounded to win an election in three (or fewer?) years' time . I just hope Burnham isn't another iteration of the Tarzan swing, but a symbol of finally coming out of the pit.
As always, you're the voice of reason and I agree that we shouldn't ignore the results Reform has secured because they reflect how voters that feel left out are responding when given a chance.
We've seen this happen in the US, in Italy, it's gaining traction in France and don't even get me started with the political shit show in Spain where people I always thought of sound mind are buying into the extreme right propaganda even when it offers no better future for them, only slogans.
We can't ignore how declining standards of living are impacting people's ability to project themselves into a hopeful future and they'll vote accordingly and support whoever promises they have the solution to their problems, even when that solution consists on blaming someone else but not on tackling the real issues.
It's weird that the UEFA has showed more leadership than our political establishment in saying no to people who put their personal profit before the common good.
And having said that, please don't feel you need to justify taking time for yourself whenever you need it for whatever reason you need it. A good friend once said to me 'You're the most important person in your life', and I try to keep it in mind when I feel bad for prioritising myself.
Reform has been boosted by years of attention. Farage, Tice et al have lured into complacency and are suffering and will continue to suffer the consequences.
Farage is in trouble now. That isn’t going to change.
Badenoch is turning the Tories into the ‘Kult of Kemi’. With inevitable consequences.
If as Burnham has stated there will be no early election (to my surprise) and Labour make a half decent go at it come Spring of 2029 the country could find itself going into a GE with no major challenger to the government.
We might in the near future have a government to which daily hysteria is a stranger.
Thank you Bear for your excellent analysis. 40 eh! I dream of going back to those halcyon days (I'm blooming 72!) but I trust you had a lovely birthday. I am actually terrified of the next GE, three years isn't long to instil hope and optimism into the electorate- of course I may not even be around then - full of the joys of summer, that's me! I have grandkids who are teenagers and, if course, I want them to have successful, happy lives. Anyway I'll stop banging on and I look forward to your next account . Take care.
Gosh! Only 40, dear Bear? - a mere child. You wait until you are staring down the barrel at 81, like me! Happy birthday, by the way :-) You can wish me on the 18th August :-D The article is so level headed and right that I will send it to Prime Minister Burnham tout de suite.
Happy belated Birthday, Bear! Thank you for your insightful analysis. I have a lot going on right now & really am struggling with *everything* so I think I'm going to pull up the social media drawbridge and look to your posts for updates. Hope you have a relaxing weekend.
Kemi has decided that anybody who thinks that climate change, even if just maybe, is caused by us is not welcome in the Conservatives. So much for bringing the party together.
Although I'm entirely with you on the need to avoid premature triumphalism as regards RefUK, I am interested to hear from Mr Pecksniff (https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/pecksniff/pecksniffs-diary-01-08-26/), whose sources are unknown but often reliable, that Ffarij himself has some doubts about whether he will stay as leader of the Party, or even whether he can beat the Count - suggesting that his polling is probably not as good as he pretends, even in Clacton.
There have also been whispers about his state of health - physical, rather than mental.
The far-right is doing what it does best: fracturing into innumerable mutually hostile subgroups. Long may it last - and we all need to keep encouraging that, in any way we can.
Agree with that. Also the result, albeit on a low turnout, is a complete vindication of the new Prime Minister’s strategy. He has provided real leadership, he has stood up and been counted and been bold. That the big lesson for me. No more timid imitation of Reform please, just bold progressive policies that work for ordinary people and improves their lives in a tangible way.
My one Burnham negative is, I can’t see how that sits well with the current Home Secretary staying in place?
Belated happy birthday 🎂 dear Bear. I agree wholeheartedly that you need space. I've recently stepped away from social media because I was getting so sad, angry, upset reading about all the crap that's happening in the world. Take as much time as you need. We're here and I for one am not going anywhere. I agree about Reform totally. Unfortunately you have given a lot of voters your thoughts that they actually think about politics, policies etc. I'll let you into a little secret. The majority of voters have absolutely no idea, they just vote for the one who says the slogans that they agree with. I am sure most of them just put a cross in the box with the name of the only candidate they recognise. Anyway, take care, stay as cool as possible and enjoy the remainder of the birthday cake. Life begins at 40! Loads of ❤️, hugs 🫂 and tight cuddles xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2) One reason not mentioned why Labour needs to watch its back is because everyone loves a winner and it's possible the Labour success in Manch, for those who could be bothered to vote, can be partly attributed to the warm fuzzy vibe of the Burnham bounce in which the country is still basking.
When Burnham's grace period honeymoon is over - I predict within the next few weeks - the Labour vs Reform bar chart is likely to start equalising.
Burnham's policy positions are a complex mix of promising and terrible. If he can't find money down back of sofa for devolution, social care, the military, etc he'll annoy one cohort. If he fails to change his position on Gaza, North Sea drilling and trans rights, he'll annoy another one as well.
Once the Burnham romance is replaced with realism, the Greens polling may well start to rise again. The good news for the progressive left block is that the right, as the Bear notes, is fragmenting (goodie), a corrosion that will continue to also damage Reform and hold it in check. The result could be a peculiarly even and sustained patchwork of support across parties within the left and right blocks.
3) Don't give up politics Bear. Your country needs you ...
Bear, your own mental and physical health should always be your priority. Step away as often as you need to. We'll wait. Happy belated birthday - believe me, at 40, you're still very much a young 'un 😊
Thank you Bear for this excellent analysis- and it was good to read something that isn't treating Andy Burnham as the second coming. Absolutely agree that - as a Labour bod, complacency is a bad enemy and that headline grabbing political whoopees may not be sufficiently grounded to win an election in three (or fewer?) years' time . I just hope Burnham isn't another iteration of the Tarzan swing, but a symbol of finally coming out of the pit.
And hope you enjoyed your birthday !!
As always, you're the voice of reason and I agree that we shouldn't ignore the results Reform has secured because they reflect how voters that feel left out are responding when given a chance.
We've seen this happen in the US, in Italy, it's gaining traction in France and don't even get me started with the political shit show in Spain where people I always thought of sound mind are buying into the extreme right propaganda even when it offers no better future for them, only slogans.
We can't ignore how declining standards of living are impacting people's ability to project themselves into a hopeful future and they'll vote accordingly and support whoever promises they have the solution to their problems, even when that solution consists on blaming someone else but not on tackling the real issues.
It's weird that the UEFA has showed more leadership than our political establishment in saying no to people who put their personal profit before the common good.
And having said that, please don't feel you need to justify taking time for yourself whenever you need it for whatever reason you need it. A good friend once said to me 'You're the most important person in your life', and I try to keep it in mind when I feel bad for prioritising myself.
Reform has been boosted by years of attention. Farage, Tice et al have lured into complacency and are suffering and will continue to suffer the consequences.
Farage is in trouble now. That isn’t going to change.
Badenoch is turning the Tories into the ‘Kult of Kemi’. With inevitable consequences.
If as Burnham has stated there will be no early election (to my surprise) and Labour make a half decent go at it come Spring of 2029 the country could find itself going into a GE with no major challenger to the government.
We might in the near future have a government to which daily hysteria is a stranger.
I hope.
Thank you Bear for your excellent analysis. 40 eh! I dream of going back to those halcyon days (I'm blooming 72!) but I trust you had a lovely birthday. I am actually terrified of the next GE, three years isn't long to instil hope and optimism into the electorate- of course I may not even be around then - full of the joys of summer, that's me! I have grandkids who are teenagers and, if course, I want them to have successful, happy lives. Anyway I'll stop banging on and I look forward to your next account . Take care.
Gosh! Only 40, dear Bear? - a mere child. You wait until you are staring down the barrel at 81, like me! Happy birthday, by the way :-) You can wish me on the 18th August :-D The article is so level headed and right that I will send it to Prime Minister Burnham tout de suite.
Very interesting read. Hope your back is feeling better and a belated happy birthday to you.
Happy belated Birthday, Bear! Thank you for your insightful analysis. I have a lot going on right now & really am struggling with *everything* so I think I'm going to pull up the social media drawbridge and look to your posts for updates. Hope you have a relaxing weekend.
Firstly, Happy Birthday. 40 is still pretty young you know!
Secondly, please only do what you want to do wrt the politics. Put yourself first.
And lastly, it's all very well dismissing Jenkyns - I'm bloody stuck with her!
Kemi has decided that anybody who thinks that climate change, even if just maybe, is caused by us is not welcome in the Conservatives. So much for bringing the party together.
To say this got no coverage is an understatement. I live in the NW and watch broadcast news most days but didn’t see any coverage of this at all.
The real test for Reform will be Clacton. Will people vote for the Count or the C#nt?
Although I'm entirely with you on the need to avoid premature triumphalism as regards RefUK, I am interested to hear from Mr Pecksniff (https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/pecksniff/pecksniffs-diary-01-08-26/), whose sources are unknown but often reliable, that Ffarij himself has some doubts about whether he will stay as leader of the Party, or even whether he can beat the Count - suggesting that his polling is probably not as good as he pretends, even in Clacton.
There have also been whispers about his state of health - physical, rather than mental.
The far-right is doing what it does best: fracturing into innumerable mutually hostile subgroups. Long may it last - and we all need to keep encouraging that, in any way we can.
In the mean time, do take care of yourself!
Agree with that. Also the result, albeit on a low turnout, is a complete vindication of the new Prime Minister’s strategy. He has provided real leadership, he has stood up and been counted and been bold. That the big lesson for me. No more timid imitation of Reform please, just bold progressive policies that work for ordinary people and improves their lives in a tangible way.
My one Burnham negative is, I can’t see how that sits well with the current Home Secretary staying in place?
Belated happy birthday 🎂 dear Bear. I agree wholeheartedly that you need space. I've recently stepped away from social media because I was getting so sad, angry, upset reading about all the crap that's happening in the world. Take as much time as you need. We're here and I for one am not going anywhere. I agree about Reform totally. Unfortunately you have given a lot of voters your thoughts that they actually think about politics, policies etc. I'll let you into a little secret. The majority of voters have absolutely no idea, they just vote for the one who says the slogans that they agree with. I am sure most of them just put a cross in the box with the name of the only candidate they recognise. Anyway, take care, stay as cool as possible and enjoy the remainder of the birthday cake. Life begins at 40! Loads of ❤️, hugs 🫂 and tight cuddles xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
3 observations -
1) Spot on!
2) One reason not mentioned why Labour needs to watch its back is because everyone loves a winner and it's possible the Labour success in Manch, for those who could be bothered to vote, can be partly attributed to the warm fuzzy vibe of the Burnham bounce in which the country is still basking.
When Burnham's grace period honeymoon is over - I predict within the next few weeks - the Labour vs Reform bar chart is likely to start equalising.
Burnham's policy positions are a complex mix of promising and terrible. If he can't find money down back of sofa for devolution, social care, the military, etc he'll annoy one cohort. If he fails to change his position on Gaza, North Sea drilling and trans rights, he'll annoy another one as well.
Once the Burnham romance is replaced with realism, the Greens polling may well start to rise again. The good news for the progressive left block is that the right, as the Bear notes, is fragmenting (goodie), a corrosion that will continue to also damage Reform and hold it in check. The result could be a peculiarly even and sustained patchwork of support across parties within the left and right blocks.
3) Don't give up politics Bear. Your country needs you ...
Welcome back, Bear. And good to hear you prioritising. Use your energy strategically rather than tactically!