Reader Contribution: So you think the Tories are economically competent? Think again ...

From Thatcher to Sunak: how the data compares to the reputation.

Long-time reader Andy Burge has spent a considerable amount of time pulling together official statistics to examine the economic record of UK governments since 1979.

Rather than arguing from slogans, he argues from tables. What follows is his attempt to test the claim of “economic competence” against inflation figures, debt ratios, wages and employment data - and to see what survives that scrutiny.

You can find more from Andy at his own Substack below:

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The UK Conservative party markets itself to the electorate as the party of low tax, low inflation, fiscal responsibility, high employment and of economic competence. Like much marketing, it is spin and in this short post I hope to show you evidence for this claim.

I have compared the economic records of four periods of government:

• The 18 year Thatcher/Major period of 1979-1987

• The 13 year Blair/Brown period of 1997-2010

• The 14 year Cameron//May/Johnson/Truss/Sunak period of 2010-2024

• The 18 month Starmer period of July 2024 to date

For each period I have put together 7 tables that show conclusively that the Tories lie to the voters about their economic record. I have where appropriate included George Osborne’s period of austerity from 2010-2016 during which he did his best to destroy our public services. All stats come from the ONS, OHBR, Bank of England or Full Fact and are verifiable.

Photo by John McArthur on Unsplash

Inflation

Let’s start with the most basic of figures; inflation. I have used the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures where possible. For early statistics where CPI stats were not available, I have used Retail Price Index figures. I have ensured I compare like with like. So how do the Tories stack up against Labour on this most basic of economic competencies? Table 1 shows you how.

During Margaret Thatcher’s and John Major’s 18 years in power, Inflation rose year on year by 5.22%. Doesn’t sound too bad does it? Total inflation over the 18 year period was 149.8% which sounds bad but 18 years is a long time right? Actually it’s a dreadful record. Compare it to the 13 years of Labour government under Blair and Brown; they managed a year on year inflation rate of just 1.89% or 27.6% over their 13 years in office.

The 14 years of various Tory administrations of Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss (less said about her the better) and Sunak (as the Tories sought a new prime minister every week or so it seemed) allowed year on year inflation to rise to nearly 3% totalling nearly 50% over the period. One might ask why the austerity period was one of low inflation. The answer is that nobody was spending any money so manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers had to absorb rising costs of parts and/or reduce their prices.

National Debt and Deficit

The Tories like to bang on relentlessly about the UK national debt and deficit as if it’s some sort of patriotic failure that we are indebted. In fact, every large developed and developing economy is indebted. First some definitions:

• Debt is the total debt owed by a country.

• Deficit (or PSBR) is the shortfall between the government’s tax receipts and its spending projection for a given period.

• Debt or Deficit expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product known as GDP (the money generated by a country) for a given period is often used for comparing different countries’ economic performances. Here are the G7 debt/GDP percentages for 2025.

Here are the national debts of the G7 expressed as a percentage of their GDPs to 2025:

• Japan - 234.9%

• Italy - 137.3%

• US - 122.5% (the US national debt is projected to be $43.34 trillion by the time Trump leaves office in 2028, always assuming he actually does leave office which is by no means a certainty)

• France - 116.3%

• Canada - 112.5%

• UK - 95.5%

• Germany - 65.4%

As you can see, we have the 6th lowest debt/GDP percentage of the G7.

When Harold MacMillan was asked what was most likely to knock a government off course he is alleged to have replied “events dear boy, events”. Though most likely apocryphal (he wasn’t that sharp), this maxim has proved to be correct and administrations of both colours have had some very bad luck. The Brown administration was faced with the global financial crisis that hit in 2008 and was caused by the creation of sub-prime property collateralised debt obligation (CDO) products (aka high risk mortgages) which the banks sold to each other, often repeatedly.

This was no more than reckless out of control gambling by the world’s financial institutions. The crisis was NOT caused by Brown’s government and any Tory repeating that line is lying, and they know they’re lying. The Tory administration under Johnson was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. In both cases money had to be borrowed to keep the economy working in some semblance of normality otherwise millions of people would have lost their jobs and homes and we would have been hit by a depression that would have made the crash of 1929 seem like an economic boom.

However it is valid to argue that in both cases, the government did not anticipate or plan for the events that came about even though they were in receipt of solid evidence that they would at some point occur. In the case of Brown’s government, he could have read a little more economic history and tightened up financial regulation in the City though this would have only been effective in the UK. In Johnson’s case, the Covid inquiry has shown that he and his government reacted indecisively and responded incompetently to the crisis thus making a bad situation far worse than it might have been.

Tables 2 and 2a show that Thatcher/Major were successful in bringing down the deficit. How? Firstly they privatised everything they could which brought £bns into the treasury. Secondly they cut public services. Thirdly they used the windfall of North Sea oil revenues to prop up their economic failures. Debt itself still increased.

Under Blair and Brown, the debt and deficit increased because they restored public services and had to deal with the global financial crash. Under the various Tory administrations that followed both debt and deficit increased even more than under Blair and Brown. Yes they had to deal with Covid but as stated above, they did so incompetently and their austerity period suppressed salaries which meant that people we not spending much if any money and consumer spending is a very significant factor in generating economic growth.

Unemployment

The Tories are very fond of saying that every Labour government has left office leaving unemployment higher than when they came into power. Indeed Andrew Griffith MP only recently repeated this in parliament on 28/02/2026 when he was deputising for his leader at Prime Minister’s Questions. The Tories repeat this lie ad infinitum and at every opportunity they get. Well I’ve not researched every labour government since 1945 but sticking with the periods of time we are examining, lets’s see if this is true.

Table 3 seems to back up the Tories’ claim in terms of the percentage of people unemployed but the unemployment rate inherited tells a different story. Further, the Tories are also guilty of the same charge. Thatcher and Major left unemployment 61.54% higher than when they came to office. Under Blair/Brown, unemployment increased but only by 19.05%. The Tory administrations between 2010 and 2024 successfully reduced unemployment by 44% however as will be seen in the next section, they did this by suppressing wages thus making employing people more attractive. Under Starmer thus far, unemployment has increased by 1.22% however there are still up to 3.5 years of his government set to run.

Average Salary

Table 4 is fairly self explanatory - basically any number less than 1 in the column headed ‘Ahead of/Behind Inflation’ means that wages fell in real terms. The table shows clearly that under the various Tory administrations between 2010 and 2024 (and especially under austerity in which the British people were forced to pay the gambling debts of Cameron’s and Osborne’s Tory donating city mates) wages were ruthlessly suppressed (this is why NHS resident doctors are saying enough is enough and are striking). It’s unfortunate that Labour is copping the worst of the NHS doctors’ anger when this was the Tories’ doing but hey ho).

This is also how the Tory governments between 2010 and 2024 were able to reduce unemployment; reduce wages (oh and remove workers’ rights too) and you make it more attractive to employ people albeit on wages that many could not live on.

Under all other administrations Wages kept well ahead of inflation.

Average House Price and Accommodation Rental Cost

We all know now that Thatcher’s “right to buy” policy (which is still in force would you believe) along with its ridiculously large discounts on offer to tenants and its harsh restrictions on replacing council houses sold has been by far the biggest cause of the housing crisis in the UK and that seemingly has gone on forever. House prices have spiralled making owning a property far more difficult. The reduction in council housing has led to a large increase in people having to rent privately. What has happened as a result of Thatcher’s policy is that a large number of those council houses sold to tenants have been sold on, and on again, until the majority of them are now in the hands of property companies. Here are the very frightening numbers for you - they need no other explanation other than to say that

• In 1979 42% of the UK population lived in council houses and paid very reasonable rents. About 12% of the population lived in privately rented accommodation.

• By 2024, 20% of the population lived in privately rented accommodation paying very high levels of rents and just 17% of people lived in council accommodation.

Tax Receipts

So the Tories are the “low tax” party are they? Don’t make me laugh. Here are the numbers for you that show that the Tories tax people at higher levels than Labour. What the Tories actually mean is that they are the “low tax for the rich” party - c/f the Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng end of the pier budget show. For the truth just compare the 13 years of Blair/Brown between 1997 and 2010 with the 14 years of Tory economic incompetence and chaos between 2010 and 2024. What was the reward for the Chancellors who implemented such demented tax policies? Why, ennoblement of course. These former Tory Chancellors now sit or once sat in the House of Lords:

• Lord Clarke of Nottingham (Ken Clarke): Chancellor from 1993 to 1997.

• Lord Hammond of Runnymede (Philip Hammond): Chancellor from 2016 to 2019.

• Lord Lamont of Lerwick (Norman Lamont): Chancellor from 1990 to 1993.

• Lord Howe of Aberavon (Geoffrey Howe) and Lord Lawson of Blaby (Nigel Lawson: Both deceased but are notable examples.

Of course the Tories also have their modern day Lord Percys and Baldricks (for those familiar with Blackadder II). People like Baron Lilley of Offa and Baron Frost of Allenton; despite knowing little about economics, they use “tricks and sports and all sorts of jolly, rosy-cheeked capering” to pull the wool over ignorant people’s eyes.

So …

There you have it. Proof, if you don’t believe your own lived experience, that far from being the party of economic competence and fiscal responsibility, The Tories are in fact the opposite. Oh and by the way, if you think the Tories are bad news for the economy, just wait and watch the Reform Ltd company in action should we ever be unfortunate enough to see Farage get his grifting hands on the levers of power - be afraid, be very afraid.

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