Planning for 2029: The Next Three and a Half Years Start Today

Yes, it's only 2025. Yes, I may be making Gantt Charts on Excel. But if we're serious about stopping authoritarian creep, we have to start now.

A few people may have noticed that yesterday I got a little bit… annoyed.

Just a tad bit more terse, and somewhat reminiscent of a certain Bear of the past - a Bear I’ve had under control for reasons of being taken just a bit more seriously and seen as just a bit less screechy. But sometimes, just every so often, that Bear does claw his way to the surface - because every now and then there are moments that ask you to stop being diplomatic and careful, and instead, just shout. Yesterday was one of those times.

Reform UK, bless their tiny authoritarian hearts, pulled their mask off just a little bit more to show us exactly who and what they are. Not that some of us needed them to do so - I’ve been shouting about their trajectory for well over a year now - but yesterday was a bit different.

There is a line in politics, an unspoken limit of what is decent and what’s not, and Farage and co gleefully skipped across it without a second glance back. They moved from the ruse of scapegoating illegal migrants - already something that’s quite toxic - to openly proposing the retrospective removal of Indefinite Leave to Remain, a policy that would make Idi Amin turgid with approval.

Except it’s backfired - and it’s backfired quite hard.

The dodgy sums, the unintended consequences, the total tone-deafness of the policy went down like a cup of cold vomit across vast swathes of society. In the past 24 hours, in between a bunch of accounts with lots of numbers in their handles terribly excited at fewer brown people, ten people commented that they had been planning on voting for Reform, but would now not do so. The reasoning for this was consistent, they all have people in their lives that they care for in this country with ILR - friends, partners, coworkers, carers - and they suddenly realised Reform’s promise of going after “the other” meant going after their people too.

That’s the problem with how scapegoating works - it always expands, it always creeps and eventually it gets so close to home that even the most sympathetic members of a cause can’t keep pretending it’s happening to only the “others” anymore. Reform have shown just a bit too much ankle, and in doing so, they have hurt themselves - and there’s no doubt in my mind that in pursuing their MAGA-lite agenda and ceaseless copying of the Geriatric Gameshow Host that they will alienate large portions of the UK voting base.

But.

And this is a big but.

We cannot rely on that. We cannot be complacent in the face of a party that is rising in popularity and being platformed by every traditional broadcaster like they’re going out of fashion. Not for one second. Because while yesterday Reform managed to repel some people, it will, unfortunately, also have hardened others¹. Reform UK’s strategy to date seems to be to throw delicious red meat to the mob and figure out what sticks. If it isn’t this, it will be something else. If it isn’t ILR migrants, it’ll be “benefit scroungers” who “taking up all the resources".” If it isn’t trans people, it’ll be the wider LGBTQ+ community “threatening family values”². If it isn’t migrants at the border, it’ll be your disabled neighbour being a “drain on the economy.”

That’s their current trajectory, and we would be foolish to think they’ll stop pushing until they’re made to stop.

Which is why I want to talk about 2029. Yes, yes - I know we’re still in 2025, and yes, I can already hear the groans, but the fact is, I’d be a very shit strategist if my grand plan was to cross my fingers, hope for the best and wait until we’re in the election cycle to panic. If we, as a progressive community, are serious about making sure that the United Kingdom doesn’t fall headlong into the fantasy land of cruelty to migrants and other minorities being sold by Reform, we need to start planting the seeds now. That means an action plan - not just vague exhortations or angry columns that make us feel good, but real things we can do, consistently and well over the next three and a half years. And yes, I have resisted the uncontrollable urge to put together a Project Initiation Document with a colour coded Gantt Chart - but don’t think that’s not coming.

The first and most obvious thing we need to do is back to that drum that I beat so relentlessly - we have to support independent media and independent voices. I’m not just saying that because I’ve sort-of-kind-of become one, I’m saying it because we’re currently seeing what’s happening in the United States, and I for one, am terrified of it happening here. The reality is that the mainstream press - The Telegraph, The Mail, The Sun - will happily launder Reform’s talking points for them, without thinking twice, because they love the clicks and they adore the drama.

They’ll print the £234bn figure included in Farage’s plan even when the think tank this came from has admitted themselves that the calculations are out and it shouldn’t be quoted. They’ll happily amplify Reform’s bellicose bluster because it makes for exciting headlines. The only way we can counter that is to strengthen the alternative channels into a robust bulwark over the next few years. Channels like

Bylines Network

,

The Lead

, local publications still doing proper reporting. We need to support voices like

Emma Monk

,

Marina Purkiss

,

Karen Attiah

,

Carole Cadwalladr

and

Sam Bright

who fearlessly take on misinformation. If we don’t want Reform to continue walking the narrative round by the scruff of its neck, then we have to support, fund and amplify the people and groups who are best placed to challenge them.

Secondly, we need to strengthen our institutions - and yes, I realise that sounds like one of those dry, meaningless phrases our favourite politicians like to throw around willy-nilly, but it really isn’t. Institutions are what keep the rules intact and consistent - they’re the reason that permanence means permanence and a great contributor to keeping things from going completely wobbly. The moment you strip them down, you get exactly what right-wing populist parties are so very keen on - governments that can rip up the social contracts because it suits their particular mob for that week.

Defending our courts, our regulators and local government from being gutted - these are things that matter. Local councils changing voting rules that become exclusionary or laws changes that may sound arcane being pushed through might sound boring, but without them, chaos is allowed to strut around pretending it’s sovereignty, and believe me, no one needs even more fake sovereignty. We tried that in 2016 and we’re still paying for it.

Thirdly, we need to work on growing our networks. While outrage is loud, networks, they’re resillient. A big reason for Reform’s perceived success is that they’ve mastered the art of creating online communities, making people feel they’re part of a cause. We, as progressives, are notoriously bad at this - just look at the sudden implosion of You Party not even out of the starting block. We spend far too much time arguing with each other over matters of purity that we tend to forget the real work is building infrastructure within our communities that support and last. The only real way of countering a Reform rally is to show up with local groups, unions, community organisers and campaign networks that are already in place and ready to go - not just yell about it after the fact. The populist right understood this years ago, and it’s high time we caught up.

Progressive parties also need to realise that it’s time to put differences aside, and genuinely start working together. Not in 2028, not in the lead up to the next General Election - right now. I have a feeling in my waters that our next government is going to be a coalition arrangement. That means that Labour, the LibDems and the Greens need to start building lines of communication and common ground well before the election.

Zack Polanski has seriously impressed over the past few weeks as the new Leader of the Greens - he’s a genuinely compelling proposition making the Green party properly stand out. Ed Davey, has shown genuine courage of convictions in ways that many people didn’t expect, but which most people admire.

Davey and Polanski are not just bit players in the background - they’re people who could potentially form part of the next government and Labour ignores this at their peril.

I’m not talking about backroom deals or opaque statements - it needs to be out in the open, a progressive movement made greater than the sum of its parts, because that’s one of the best ways to blunt Reform’s momentum, by having a credible, united alternative. I know it sounds like I’m drawing up a fantasy football league of British politics³, but I would much rather that than watch Reform move through our society uncontested.

The fifth one is something all of us can do - keep those receipts. Make a note of whenever Reform tries some harebrained new idea, the numbers, the research - keep a check on all the grandiose promises they make. We need to build an archive of their words and actions, so when they try to backtrack or rebrand⁴ we can hold it up and say: “No, this is who you are.”

Memory is terribly short in politics and newscycles make it even shorter - our job is to make it longer. And yes, that does mean that your gallery app is going to be absolutely filled to the brim with screenshots, but, I kind of suspect that this might not be a new thing for many of us anyway, so we may as well make it useful.

Number six - look after one another. I know that sounds incredibly soppy, but I’m not just talking about everyone cheering each other on. Authoritarian movements thrive in environments of atomisation - they want us angry, isolated and suspicious of our neighbours. The best way to counter this is through solidarity - not just in the abstract sense of the word, but in small, every day ways. Checking in on people. Supporting community projects. Making sure that the people who are being targeted don’t feel alone.

These actions are important, and more than that, it builds the kind of resilience that keeps movements alive when headlines become more and more bleak by the hour. And no, I am in no way suggesting we set up a bunch of communes across the country or all get matching Bear tattoos - just don’t leave people to fend for themselves when the attacks are coming.

The last thing we can do - lucky number seven - is keep hopeful.

I can practically hear the cynical groans wafting through the screen as I write this, but here’s the truth - Reform’s policy announcement yesterday has genuinely turned people away from them. That’s a glimmer - and a damned bright one at that. It’s proof that cruelty has its limits, that people can and will draw the line when it starts to affect the people in their lives that they care about. Is it enough on its own to stop Reform in its. tracks? No. Unfortunately not. But it is a start.

Hope is a resource just as much as money, networks or connections - if we give up on it, we’ve already lost.

Now, before I launch into a chorus of “Don’t Stop Believin”, that is largely the plan.

It’s not particularly glamorous, quick or easy - but it is necessary. If we can do even some of these seven things over the next three and a half years, we will be more prepared for 2029 than just sitting back and hoping someone else will fix the problem. This is how we prep, because 2029 starts now.

Reform has shown us who they are - and I really, genuinely believe that yesterday will be the moment that many people finally saw it too. But, we cannot rest on that - we cannot just hope that outrage will be enough, because that too, will fade. Outrage alone doesn’t win elections - what wins is community, solidarity and unglamorous, relentless hard work.

The good news is, we have time. Three and a half years to get ourselves organised, to build our infrastructure, to prepare ourselves. Three and a half years to make sure that when Reform comes blustering with its next big scapegoat, we’re ready for them. Three and a half years to ensure that the story of the UK in 2029 isn’t the story of cruelty being triumphant, but of a country that pulled itself right back from the brink.

Reform’s mask is off - the line has been crossed.

And yes, if you’ll please excused me, I might just open Excel and make a Gantt chart about it - because the one thing I refuse to do is sit myself back on my big-bear-arse and hope the problem solves itself.

1. Many of them who would be very happy for Reform to not just stop at migrants.

2. Especially with Obergefell vs. Hodges being next up for overturning by MAGA.

3. Something I would obviously never do…

4. Which, considering they’re basically the Brexit Party in Turquoise, and that in turn was UKIP with a suit on, is something to keep a really close eye on.